Victoria's greenfield market shows resilience as buyers become more selective: RPM's Q2 Greenfield Market Report

IN BRIEF

• Victoria's greenfield market recorded 4,048 lot sales in Q2 2026, with several corridors holding or increasing sales despite higher borrowing costs.

• First-home buyers accounted for 59 per cent of surveyed Melbourne and Geelong purchasers, highlighting the greenfield market's continuing role in delivering attainable new housing.

• Melbourne's median lot price edged higher to $385,550, up 2.8 per cent year-on-year, while the South East, Geelong and several regional markets demonstrated resilient buyer demand.

Victoria's greenfield market continues to show resilience through a more challenging borrowing environment, with land values holding, first-home buyers remaining active and several key growth corridors recording steady or improving demand through the June quarter.

RPM Group's Q2 2026 Victorian Greenfield Market Report shows buyers have become increasingly selective rather than retreating from the market altogether, concentrating on established communities, titled land, strong amenity and locations where affordability remains compelling.

Across the Victorian markets tracked by RPM, 4,048 lots transacted during the June quarter, down 11 per cent from Q1 and 24 per cent compared with the same quarter in 2025.

The headline figure, however, masks considerable variation between individual markets.

Melbourne's western corridor recorded a 24 per cent quarterly reduction in sales and the north was down 15 per cent, while the south east was virtually unchanged. Further afield, both Macedon and Mitchell and Drouin and Warragul recorded increased sales.

RPM National Managing Director Built Form Luke Kelly said the June quarter demonstrated that Victoria could no longer be viewed as one uniform greenfield market.

"Victoria’s greenfield market did not move as one market this quarter, it split," Kelly said.

"Some corridors pulled back hard, slowing supply and sales, while others kept building."

Despite softer overall volumes, Melbourne land values have remained resilient.

The median lot price edged 0.1 per cent higher during Q2 to $385,550 and is now 2.8 per cent higher than a year ago, while the median lot size remained unchanged at 350 sqm.

First-home buyers continue to underpin demand

One of the more encouraging findings from RPM's June quarter data is the continued presence of first-home buyers.

Of approximately 267 Melbourne and Geelong purchasers surveyed by RPM during Q2, 59 per cent were first-home buyers and 73 per cent were owner-occupiers.

Families accounted for 56 per cent of surveyed households.

The figures reinforce the important role greenfield markets continue to play in providing a pathway into home ownership at a time when established housing across much of metropolitan Melbourne remains considerably more expensive.

Affordability is also increasingly shaping where buyers transact.

Lots priced at $350,000 or below accounted for 42 per cent of Melbourne sales during Q2, compared with 39 per cent a year earlier and 34 per cent in Q2 2024.

Lots priced above $425,000 represented 26 per cent of transactions, compared with 33 per cent two years earlier.

The most common home and land budget among surveyed purchasers was $600,000 to $650,000, accounting for 18 per cent of respondents, followed by $700,000 to $750,000 at 15 per cent and $650,000 to $700,000 at 14 per cent.

Importantly, buyers entering the market appear intent on building rather than simply securing land for the longer term.

More than half, 54 per cent, intended to start construction immediately following settlement, while another 27 per cent planned to commence within three months.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents were considering a single-storey home.

Value keeps buyers engaged in Melbourne's west

Melbourne's west recorded the largest adjustment in activity during Q2, but remains the city's key affordability corridor and continues to attract buyers seeking value.

The corridor recorded 1,023 lot sales, down from 1,350 in Q1, while average trading periods increased to 236 days.

RPM found established estates with existing amenity continued to outperform, while buyers showed a preference for titled stock where they could move more quickly toward construction.

Developers have responded to the more selective conditions by adjusting the amount of new stock entering the market.

Some 619 lots were released across Wyndham and Melton during Q2, down 31 per cent quarter-on-quarter and representing a greater reduction than the decline in sales.

The number of active estates also fell to 126, its lowest level in more than two years.

That adjustment should help keep the supply-demand equation relatively disciplined as the market works through existing stock.

Land values have also continued to hold.

The western corridor median increased 1.3 per cent to $377,750 for a 350 sqm median lot, maintaining the west's position as Melbourne's best-value major growth corridor on a square metre basis.

RPM noted buyers were "still showing up, just taking longer to commit."

North maintains a balanced supply-demand equation

The northern growth corridor also recorded softer transactions during Q2, but its underlying supply-demand equation remains one of Melbourne's most balanced.

There were 1,070 sales during the quarter, down 15 per cent from 1,258 in Q1.

Hume remained a key contributor, while Whittlesea and Mitchell continued to attract entry-level demand.

Average trading days increased to 138, still considerably shorter than the western corridor.

Importantly, developers adjusted new supply almost directly in line with buyer demand.

Releases fell 16 per cent to 913 lots, broadly matching the 15 per cent reduction in sales.

RPM described the north as the "most balanced" of Melbourne's three metropolitan corridors during the quarter.

The median land price held at $368,000, while the median lot size increased from 324.5 sqm to 338 sqm.

That effectively means buyers were able to secure more land for the same headline median price, with the north's price per square metre now within one per cent of the west.

South East proves Melbourne's most resilient corridor

Melbourne's south east was the strongest performing of the three major metropolitan growth corridors during Q2.

Sales were virtually unchanged at 873 compared with 867 in Q1, a particularly resilient result given the higher borrowing costs buyers have faced during the first half of the year.

Casey continued to underpin the market, with Officer and Cranbourne accounting for much of the activity.

Titled stock cleared in an average 147 days, while RPM found local owner-occupiers continued to dominate demand.

The south east also benefits from a comparatively strong upgrader market, providing the corridor with a buyer cohort less exposed to difficult lending conditions than markets more heavily reliant on first-home buyers.

Developers again responded to conditions by moderating new supply.

Only 496 lots were released during Q2, down 45 per cent from 906 in Q1, while the number of active estates fell to 73.

The median lot price was $429,000, maintaining the south east's position as Melbourne's highest-priced major greenfield corridor.

Geelong holds firm as median pushes through $400,000

Greater Geelong continues to demonstrate the strength of its established greenfield market, with sales remaining virtually unchanged during Q2 despite the wider borrowing environment.

There were 545 transactions during the quarter compared with 547 in Q1.

Armstrong Creek remained the major driver of activity, supported by titled stock and established builder relationships, while Lara and surrounding areas continued to attract affordability-led buyers.

Pricing was the standout.

Geelong's median lot price increased 5.3 per cent from $379,800 to $400,008, pushing through $400,000 for the first time since late 2023.

Its median lot size also remains larger than Melbourne at 400 sqm.

Developers released 364 lots during the quarter, up 24 per cent, while stock returns fell to just 47, their lowest level in more than three years.

The number of active estates increased to 70.

RPM noted the combination of increasing supply and rising prices was unusual and said the movement would warrant further assessment when Q3 data becomes available.

Regional affordability continues to draw buyers

Beyond Melbourne and Geelong, Victoria's major regional greenfield markets continue to offer a substantial affordability advantage.

Ballarat recorded 220 sales during Q2, down just four per cent from the previous quarter.

Developers also brought significantly more stock to market, with 175 lots released compared with 63 in Q1.

The increased pipeline gives buyers greater choice, while Ballarat's pricing remains one of its key advantages.

The median lot price was $280,000 during Q2 for a median 448 sqm block, keeping the city considerably more affordable than Melbourne's metropolitan growth corridors.

Bendigo recorded 105 sales during the quarter, while average trading days improved from 264 to 234.

Developers moderated supply, with releases down 39 per cent to 64 lots.

Its median price increased nine per cent to $288,808, although RPM cautioned that further quarters would be needed to determine whether that represented a sustained price trend.

Macedon and Mitchell was among the markets to record increased buyer activity, with sales rising seven per cent to 89, supported by activity in Kilmore and Wallan.

Its median lot price was $330,000, while the median lot size was 579 sqm.

Drouin and Warragul recorded the strongest percentage increase in sales of any corridor monitored by RPM, rising 12 per cent to 123 transactions.

RPM attributed demand to the region's relative affordability and continued relocation from Melbourne, with Warragul accounting for the majority of activity.

Developers responded by releasing 182 lots during Q2, almost double the 93 lots brought to market in Q1, providing significantly greater choice for buyers.

The median lot price edged 0.8 per cent higher to $320,000.

The affordability gradient remains significant

One of the clearest advantages of Victoria's greenfield market remains the breadth of price points available to buyers.

RPM's comparison of 350 sqm lots shows just how significantly land values vary depending on location.

At the upper end, a 350 sqm lot in Greenvale was $550,000, compared with $486,000 in Officer, $455,000 in Clyde North, $440,000 in Wollert and $433,000 in Clyde.

Further from Melbourne, comparable land becomes considerably more affordable.

A 350 sqm lot was $325,000 in Wallan, $277,000 in Melton South and $332,000 in Warragul.

Armstrong Creek sat at $385,000 and Lara at $354,900.

That price diversity gives buyers the ability to trade location, lot size and proximity to Melbourne against their individual budgets, and continues to underpin the role greenfield development plays in accommodating first-home buyers and young families.

Affordability remains greenfield's strongest hand

Borrowing conditions will continue to shape buyer behaviour through the second half of 2026.

RPM noted three consecutive interest rate increases lifted the cash rate from 3.6 per cent to 4.35 per cent during the first half, reducing borrowing capacity and making buyers more considered about where and what they purchase.

RPM General Manager Market Intelligence Michael Staedler said first-home buyers "remain most exposed to further rate movement."

But the sector enters the second half with several fundamentals continuing to support demand.

First-home buyers remain active, owner-occupiers dominate purchaser profiles and developers across several corridors have responded to changing conditions by moderating new supply.

Most importantly, the relative affordability of buying new land and building a home remains difficult to replicate across established metropolitan Melbourne.

Staedler said Melbourne's greenfield market "retains a genuine affordability edge over established housing and other eastern seaboard markets".

Q2 also shows there is no single Victorian greenfield market.

The west continues to offer some of metropolitan Melbourne's strongest value, while developers adjust supply to a more considered buyer.

The north remains relatively balanced, with releases moving closely alongside sales.

The south east has maintained its sales momentum and continues to benefit from a strong owner-occupier and upgrader market.

Geelong has held volumes while its median lot price moved above $400,000, and several regional markets continue to attract buyers seeking substantially larger lots at lower price points.

Against a more challenging borrowing backdrop, the resilience of those markets, and the continued presence of first-home buyers, suggests affordability remains the Victorian greenfield sector's strongest hand heading into the remainder of 2026.